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New AI Weather Model Outperforms Top Global Forecasting Systems
- Written by Kiara Fabbri Former Tech News Writer
- Fact-Checked by Justyn Newman Former Lead Cybersecurity Editor
Google DeepMind has unveiled GenCast, an artificial intelligence (AI) model that surpasses the world’s leading weather forecasting system in speed and accuracy, according to a paper published in Nature on Wednesday.
In a Rush? Here are the Quick Facts!
- DeepMind’s GenCast AI model predicts weather 15 days ahead in minutes.
- GenCast generates probabilistic forecasts, estimating the likelihood of weather outcomes.
- The model produces accurate forecasts faster than traditional systems, taking only 8 minutes.
Unlike conventional models, GenCast can deliver forecasts up to 15 days in advance within minutes, a dramatic improvement over the hours required by existing systems, notes Nature in a press release.
The model’s capabilities show GenCast outpacing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ ensemble model (ENS) in predicting extreme events like hurricanes and heatwaves, as noted in Nature.
Researchers believe this breakthrough signals a new era of quicker, more reliable AI-driven weather predictions. Nature explains that GenCast relies solely on historical weather data, allowing it to uncover complex patterns between variables such as temperature, humidity, and wind.
Nature reports that this data-driven approach contrasts with traditional systems, which simulate atmospheric physics using supercomputers. The model generates ensemble forecasts—a set of predictions from slightly varied starting conditions—which provide not only expected outcomes but also the likelihood of their accuracy.
This probabilistic method proved superior in nearly every metric when GenCast was tested against ENS using weather data from 2019. It also excelled in forecasting extreme conditions, such as tropical cyclone tracks and severe temperature swings, as reported by Nature.
GenCast’s speed is another advantage, producing a complete 15-day forecast in just eight minutes using an AI processing chip. Traditional models take hours. This efficiency could prove vital for early warnings in emergencies, such as hurricanes, noted Nature.
DeepMind has also released the code and non-commercial parameters of GenCast, aiming to democratize weather forecasting research.
“This is a really great contribution to open science,” says Matthew Chantry, a machine-learning coordinator at the European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK, as reported by Nature.
“We need to understand how these models perform in the most extreme weather events”, and publishing the model and data publicly will enable the research community to evaluate them, he added.
Dr. Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at MIT who was not involved in the DeepMind research, noted that GenCast is likely to complement existing methods rather than replace them, as reported by The New York Times .
Each type, he said, has its own strengths and weaknesses in predicting the riot of variable phenomena that constitute the weather. “The status quo isn’t going to disappear,” Dr. Emanuel said. “Perhaps the two of them working together will prove to be the best way forward,” reported The Times
As AI models like GenCast advance, they promise faster, more accurate weather forecasts, empowering communities to make better-informed decisions in the face of extreme weather.
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UK Cybersecurity Chief Warns Of Escalating Threats In Cyberspace
- Written by Kiara Fabbri Former Tech News Writer
- Fact-Checked by Justyn Newman Former Lead Cybersecurity Editor
Britain’s cyber security chief has raised alarms over a significant rise in hostile cyber activity across the UK, with incidents escalating by 16% in 2024 compared to the previous year, as reported on Tuesday by Reuters .
In a Rush? Here are the Quick Facts!
- Ransomware is the most immediate threat to critical sectors like energy and healthcare.
- The NCSC issued 542 cyber incident notifications, over double the number from 2023.
- Hackers may exploit AI to create more advanced and damaging cyberattacks.
Richard Horne, head of the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), highlighted the growing frequency, sophistication, and intensity of cyber threats.
“Actors are increasingly using our technology dependence against us, seeking to cause maximum disruption and destruction,” Horne is expected to say in a speech later today, according to a government agency statement, reported on Reuters.
The NCSC’s incident management team handled 430 cyber incidents in 2024, up from 371 in 2023, reported Reuters.
Of these, 347 cases involved data exfiltration, where sensitive data was covertly stolen from devices, while 20 involved ransomware attacks. These attacks typically encrypt victims’ data and demand payment for its release, reported Reuters.
The NCSC also issued 542 bespoke notifications to organisations, alerting them to cyber incidents and offering mitigation advice—more than double the 258 notifications provided last year, reported Reuters.
Reuters reported that in its annual review, published alongside the statement, the NCSC identified ransomware as the most immediate and disruptive threat to critical sectors such as energy, water, transport, healthcare, and telecommunications.
The report also warned of the potential for hackers to exploit artificial intelligence to design more sophisticated cyberattacks, according to Reuters.
Horne emphasized the severity of the evolving threat landscape, urging vigilance against both state-led and criminal cyber activities.
“We believe the severity of the risk facing the UK is being widely underestimated […] There is no room for complacency about the severity of state-led threats or the volume of the threat posed by cyber criminals,” he said according to Reuters.
The NCSC, part of the UK’s GCHQ intelligence agency, continues to work with organisations to bolster cybersecurity measures and mitigate risks amid the rapidly changing digital threat environment.
