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Language Models Are Doubling In Power Every 7 Months
- Written by Kiara Fabbri Former Tech News Writer
- Fact-Checked by Sarah Frazier Former Content Manager
Large Language Models (LLMs) are getting smarter fast, and experts predict they could be doing in hours what takes humans a whole month by 2030.
In a rush? Here are the quick facts:
- By 2030, LLMs may complete a month’s work in just hours.
- METR created a new benchmark called “task-completion time horizon.”
- Researchers warn progress may outpace our ability to control it.
A study by Model Evaluation & Threat Research (METR), a group based in Berkeley, California, found that LLM capabilities are doubling every seven months.
The group developed a way to measure this progress with a concept called the “task-completion time horizon,” which estimates how long a human would take to do something an AI can now handle with 50% reliability.
The researchers argued that by 2030, they estimate that the most advanced models could complete, with 50 percent reliability, software-based tasks that currently take humans a full month to finish.
That level of ability could have huge upsides and serious risks. The availability of LLMs with that kind of capability ‘‘would come with enormous stakes, both in terms of potential benefits and potential risks,” said AI researcher Zach Stein-Perlman, as reported by Spectrum .
However, the researchers note that LLMs still struggle with “messy” tasks, such as jobs that are open-ended, poorly defined, or similar to real-world challenges.
“Even if it were the case that we had very, very clever AIs, this pace of progress could still end up bottlenecked on things like hardware and robotics,” said METR researcher Megan Kinniment, as reported by Spectrum.
She also warned about the risks of rapid acceleration: “You could get acceleration that is quite intense and does make things meaningfully more difficult to control.”
Image by National Cancer Institute, from Unsplash
Doctors Use AI To Appeal Insurance Denials
- Written by Kiara Fabbri Former Tech News Writer
- Fact-Checked by Sarah Frazier Former Content Manager
Doctors are using AI to automate appeals against insurance denials.
In a rush? Here are the quick facts:
- AI tool Fight Paperwork automates appeal letters for denied health claims.
- Created by ex-Netflix engineer Holden Karau in response to personal frustration.
- Over 6,000 appeals generated since May, saving time and lowering costs.
Frustrated by a healthcare system that routinely denies treatment, some U.S. doctors are turning to AI to push back. The San Francisco Standard (SFS) reports on a new tool, called Fight Paperwork , which enables medical practitioners to produce appeal letters for insurance claim rejections, which both saves administrative time and enhances the probability of successful approval.
Dr. Paul Abramson, who practices medicine in San Francisco, said to SFS that insurers often communicate through email and fax to deny necessary treatments, hoping that doctors and patients will abandon their appeals. The system relies on patient and doctor frustration as its primary strategy. But when doctors do appeal, they’re successful in most cases. The problem is that less than 1% of denials are ever appealed, as noted by SFS.
“There are no consequences to the insurance companies for wasting everyone’s time,” Abramson told SFS. “When there are more consequences, they will stop playing the game,” he added.
That’s where AI comes in. Fight Paperwork, which was developed by former Netflix engineer Holden Karau, helps automate the appeal process. The platform has generated more than 6,000 appeals since its launch in May, which has reduced both expenses and administrative time spent on bureaucratic procedures. Mental health providers, who often work alone, make up the largest number of users for this tool, as reported by SFS.
Still, some experts believe the playing field is far from even. “I think an ‘arms race’ is optimistic, because it would imply that there are equal sides. It’s more of a mosquito bite that may cause them some inconvenience […] their robot basically wrestles with your robot.” said retired Bay Area doctor Harley Schultz, as reported by SFS.
While AI offers hope, many doctors stress that real change must come through regulation. California is considering laws to increase transparency from pharmacy benefit managers, a key player blamed for rising costs.
Until then, AI is offering doctors like Abramson a small, but powerful, way to reclaim their time and fight for their patients.
